PKB rift has little impact on NU factions

Jakarta, NU Online
A threat made by former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid to abstain from voting in next year's general election will not inspire other factions to follow suit, analysts say.

Political observers said the battle between Gus Dur and rival Muhaiman for chairmanship of the National Awakening Party (PKB), which ended in a court ruling in favor of Muhaiman, will not inspire a similar clash between internal factions of Nahdlatul Ulam (NU), the country's largest Islamic organization.<>

"NU members and PKB supporters have become more mature and rational. Although they still support Gus Dur, they will cast their votes because they know the court has made a decision," political scientist Ikrar Nusa Bakti of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences said here on Monday.

He said there was a strong unity among the members of the NU and that a coup was unlikely.

The PKB, formed by Gus Dur in 1998, gained 11 percent of votes in the 2004 legislative election, thanks in part to a strong turnout of NU members in East Java, making it the country's third largest party.

Last month, the South Jakarta District Court dismissed PKB chief patron Gus Dur's attempt to usurp his nephew Muhaimin and acting secretary general Lukman from the party.

The court ruled that Muhaimin and Lukman be reinstated as the party's chairman and secretary-general.

Last week, a Supreme Court ruling confirmed Muhaimin and Lukman as the party's leaders, allowing them to consolidate in time for the general elections.

Gus Dur said immediately after the verdict that he would boycott the polls and that he would not reconcile with Muhaimin.

Pointing to results of recent surveys that show the PKB has the most loyal supporters of all parties, political observer Indra J. Pilliang of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) agreed that Gus Dur's influence had waned.

"I think a process of rationalization and 'deGusDurization' has begun to sweep through the supporters of the PKB and the members of NU. That's why there will be little boycotting of the polls and no clashes," he was quoted by The Jakarta Post.

However, Indra said more crucial was whether Gus Dur's supporters, who many believe are still the majority among NU members, would vote for a Muhaimin-lead PKB or other NU-related parties, including the Ulema National Awakening Party (PKNU) or the United Development Party (PPP).

A recent survey by pollster institution Indo Barometer placed the PKB in fourth place with 7.4 percent after the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar Party and the Democratic Party.

A similar survey conducted by the CSIS last week also placed the PKB in fourth place, with 6.8 percent.

"I think NU members and PKB supporters in East Java will not let the party they are very proud of go to ruin," Ikrar said. "However, the number of votes for the party ultimately will fall due to the dispute, although they will pass the legislative threshold of 2.5 percent."

Paramadina University political expert Bima Arya Setyo said the critical moment would come when Muhaimin named legislator candidates for the election.

"If Gus Dur decides to resist the candidates, then Muhaimin must approach the people around Gus Dur, probably with legislative offers or offers of positions within the party, to reduce the tension," he said. (dar)